Congo (DRC) supply risk premium accelerates release, the most-traded SHFE tin contract breaks strongly through 300,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of November 27, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2601 opened sharply higher and continued to strengthen, closing at 301,400 yuan/mt at midday, up 5,440 yuan from the previous session's settlement price, a gain of 1.84%. It hit a session high of 304,970 yuan/mt, marking the second-highest level since its listing. The market was active, with trading volume exceeding 96,000 lots and open interest rising to 55,300 lots, as capital flows intensified around the supply disruption narrative. Meanwhile, LME tin was quoted at $38,250/mt, up 0.42%, with overseas strength providing correlated support to domestic prices.

The core driver in the tin market currently centers on escalating supply-side risks. The extension of the manual mining ban in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces of the DRC for six months, coupled with escalating conflict in the east, has raised concerns about transport disruptions from the Bisie mine, which accounts for about 8% of global tin ore production. Geopolitical premiums are being rapidly priced in. Additionally, although Myanmar's Wa State has issued mining licenses, actual production resumptions are significantly lagging due to the rainy season, equipment issues, and labor shortages. China's tin ore imports from Myanmar fell 61.6% YoY in October, and raw material inventories at domestic smelters remain low at 7-10 days of coverage.

In the short term, low inventories and supply disruptions are jointly driving tin prices higher, but the spot market is struggling to catch up, with downstream acceptance of high prices limited. This afternoon, focus will be on developments in the DRC and whether LME tin can hold above the $38,000/mt level. Any escalation in conflict could trigger short covering and further push prices up. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the afternoon, with a projected range of 301,000-306,000 yuan/mt.